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“Playoffs?! I Just Hope We Can Win a Game!” – Part 3

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Last week, I wrote an article that was intended to provide some hope for Bengals fans, that the tunnel with the light at the end of it may not be as long as some may think.  While I am hopeful, I am also realistic, and I realize that it takes a lot of things going right for the Bengals to make a quick, one-year turnaround.  However, some responded to the article with resistance to even entertaining the idea that the Bengals could be playoff contenders in 2020.  Most of the concerns revolved around the bad offensive line, the lack of trust in the front office to make free agent acquisitions, and the lack of a ‘plan.’  While all of these concerns are legitimate, I think there are some signs that show that the franchise COULD be headed in the right direction in each of these areas. In this three part series, we will look at these in greater detail, one at a time.

In the third and final installment of this series, let’s address the lack of a ‘plan’ by the front office that has some fans feeling like a turnaround is impossible.  I would agree, that the Bengals have missed some prime opportunities thus far.  They could have, and arguably should have, traded both Cordy Glenn and Andy Dalton at the trade deadline in late-October.  Instead, they completely botched both of those situations in benching Dalton for Ryan Finley, and then the drama surrounding Cordy before finally making his debut in November.  However, all is not lost (yet).  The Bengals can still move on from both players and receive some cap relief with no dead money, whether they release or trade either player.  Rumors have been swirling around Dalton and perhaps New England, but no matter the team, there should be interest in the veteran signal-caller from a number of teams before the draft.  If the team can swap Dalton for a mid-round pick, that would be a major win compared to losing him for ‘nothing.’  Also, you cannot convince me that this team was not tanking this year for the top-pick.  Fourth-rounder Ryan Finley received three starts and completed just 47% of his passes, A.J. Green was held out for the duration of the season (whether that was 100% his decision or mutual, who knows), and the team lacked the will to win close games as evidenced by their (0-8) record in games decided by eight points or less.  This led ultimately to the first overall selection, and presumably a chance to draft their franchise quarterback in LSU record-setter Joe Burrow.  Was this team good in 2019?  Absolutely not.  Were they (2-14) bad?  I also do not believe so.  In a recent Twitter poll with nearly 1,100 votes, the good fans of Bengals Talk voted Burrow as the better quarterback RIGHT NOW at a clip of 3:1.  I just mentioned their inability to win close games.  Do you think Burrow wins four of those games that were one-score losses?  Maybe more?  Obviously, there is no way to tell, but the point is that with the same talent as last year’s squad, we would expect Burrow to do better than the Dalton/Finley combo.  Add-in A.J. Green (whom I do believe resigns with Cincy), Jonah Williams, and the continued development of guys like John Ross and Auden Tate and suddenly that is one scary offense that can keep up with teams that score on our somewhat porous defense.

All of this to say, I think while Bengals fans have a right to be cynical and skeptical of this team, if you are able to put away some of that bias you can squint and see a path to a playoff berth in 2020.  Again… is it likely?  Probably not.  But it is possible.  And for those weary, tired Bengals fans that feel like they are walking in the dark when rooting for this team, the bright light at the end is shining a little brighter.

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“Playoffs?! I Just Hope We Can Win a Game!” – Part 2

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Last week, I wrote an article that was intended to provide some hope for Bengals fans, that the tunnel with the light at the end of it may not be as long as some may think.  While I am hopeful, I am also realistic, and I realize that it takes a lot of things going right for the Bengals to make a quick, one-year turnaround.  However, some responded to the article with resistance to even entertaining the idea that the Bengals could be playoff contenders in 2020.  Most of the concerns revolved around the bad offensive line, the lack of trust in the front office to make free agent acquisitions, and the lack of a ‘plan.’  While all of these concerns are legitimate, I think there are some signs that show that the franchise COULD be headed in the right direction in each of these areas. In this three part series, we will look at these in greater detail, one at a time.

In the second installment in this series, we look at our problematic offensive line.  If you think about it, the Bengals really have TWO first round picks in 2020.  Presumably Joe Burrow, and then Jonah Williams.  Obviously, Williams was drafted 11th overall last season but did not play during the season due to a shoulder injury.  However, let’s not forget the kind of prospect Jonah Williams was coming into last year’s draft.  He is a versatile player that started 15 games at right tackle, and 29 at left tackle during his college career.  Some of the honors bestowed upon him include Freshman All-American, a unanimous First-Team All-American his senior year, and winner of the Jacobs Trophy (awarded to the best blocker in the SEC).  Williams allowed just 5 sacks while playing over 1,300 career pass block snaps.  NFL Analysts Bucky Brooks and Daniel Jeremiah were high on him last spring, with Brooks dubbing Jonah as a top-3 tackle and Jeremiah ranking him as a top-20 overall prospect among all positions.  Those were just two of the many experts that believed Jonah Williams could be a star.

I would hope that the Bengals would be willing to spend a little on upgrading their offensive line, which is one of their weaker position groups, and one that can have a major impact on a team’s potential to reach their ceiling.  There are top lineman available in Brandon Scherff, Bryan Bulaga, Anthony Constanzo, etc. but they will demand top dollar (most likely anywhere between $10 – 15 million per year).  However, some of the lower-tier guys would still be upgrades for an offensive line that had every starter graded below the top 50% of their position, with Tre Hopkins’ PFF grade of 62.8 leading the way.

Michael Schofield or perhaps even Andrew Whitworth (although a reunion is probably unlikely given the terms on which things ended previously) would be a couple of guys I would expect the Bengals to consider.  Cincinnati may use a 2nd or 3rd round pick on an offensive lineman but lately the Bengals have struggled to get the most out of their draft picks along the offensive line, and after Round 1 of the draft, it is hard to find an impact rookie to play tackle or guard.  Consider though, that it will only take average-level play to see an improvement for that unit.

So other than adding Jonah Williams, if we assume the front office fails to make a splash in free agency, the offensive line may look a lot like it did in 2019.  However, it is important to note that the hog-mollies up front performed much better down the stretch last season.  After Andy Dalton returned to replace the disaster that was Ryan Finley, the offensive line allowed an average of 1.6 sacks and paved the way for 121 rushing yards per game.  In addition, there have been teams able to overcome weak lines and make the playoffs.  Most recently, the Seahawks (27th), Bills (21st), Texans (20th), and Vikings (19th) all made the playoffs with below-average graded lines, according to PFF (the Bengals ranked 30th).  While no one can argue that the Bengals line is good as-is, I think having playmakers like Joe Mixon and Joe Burrow can help mitigate that weakness and prevent it from holding the team back too much in the same way we have seen with other teams.

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“Playoffs?! I Just Hope We Can Win a Game!” – Part 1

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Cincinnati Bengals head coach Zac Taylor answers questions from the press after the first day of offseason workouts, Tuesday, April 9, 2019, at Paul Brown Stadium in Cincinnati. Zac Taylor Press Conference 4 9 2019

Last week, I wrote an article that was intended to provide some hope for Bengals fans, that the tunnel with the light at the end of it may not be as long as some may think.  While I am hopeful, I am also realistic, and I realize that it takes a lot of things going right for the Bengals to make a quick, one-year turnaround.  However, some responded to the article with resistance to even entertaining the idea that the Bengals could be playoff contenders in 2020.  Most of the concerns revolved around the bad offensive line, the lack of trust in the front office to make free agent acquisitions, and the lack of a ‘plan.’  While all of these concerns are legitimate, I think there are some signs that show that the franchise COULD be headed in the right direction in each of these areas.  In this three part series, we will look at these in greater detail, one at a time.

Let’s begin looking at free agency, and the lack of activity in signing external free agents to any significant amount of money.  Many times the Brown family has prioritized resigning their own free agents, and then spend on mostly bottom tier free agents to bring into the organization.  As it relates to the aforementioned offensive line: signing some of the top tier guys would be nice of course, but history tells us we should not expect the Bengals to shell out 12-15 mil a year for those guys.  On the current roster, there are only four players projected to make more than $10 million after 2020 (Geno Atkins, Dre Kirkpatrick, Carlos Dunlap, and Tyler Boyd).  This team doesn’t typically dole out monster contracts to their own guys, let alone outside free agents.  One has to wonder though if and when that propensity to squeeze every penny will fade a bit. 

Consider: when the Bengals FINALLY moved on from Marvin Lewis, it was a major change for the organization.  Granted, it was probably long overdue, but the front office did make that decision to move on.  After that, leadership decided that Zac Taylor was the best fit for their head coaching vacancy, choosing him over more “proven” options like Vance Joseph or Hue Jackson (gulp).  Whether you were a fan of the signing or not, the decision to pursue Zac Taylor and then allow him to bring in Brian Callahan, making them the youngest Head Coach / Offensive Coordinator duo in the league, seemed to be off-brand for a team that for so long valued continuity and experience.  With anywhere from $47 – 74 million in cap space (depending on what they do with Andy Dalton and Cordy Glenn), it will be interesting if Zac Taylor or others have any sway in getting management to pony up some cash for a top lineman to protect their franchise quarterback. 

If the Bengals do decide to invest in their future a bit more and sign some free agents (especially at the OL and LB positions), this could jumpstart the rebuild and propel this team towards contention sooner rather than later. While expecting the team to pay large sums of money to outside free agents may be somewhat unlikely, in all honesty if they pay for ‘average’ talent at those two position groups, it would spell major improvement in 2020.

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A Case for the Bengals Making the Playoffs Next Season

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In case you haven’t heard, the 54th Super Bowl will be taking place this Sunday in Miami, Florida. On one side you have the Kansas City Chiefs, who have made the playoffs for the past five seasons and have been a staple of consistency under Andy Reid. On the other side of the field stand the San Francisco 49ers, who not too long ago endured a (2-14) season similar to the Bengals’ 2019 season. In looking at these two teams, Bengals fans can stand to be encouraged about the prospects of a playoff berth occurring sooner rather than later.

In general, the NFL Playoffs see fairly consistent turnover season to season. Over the past five seasons, an average of five of the 12 playoff teams are newcomers from the previous season, with only the Patriots, Chiefs, Seahawks, and Texans making more than three playoff appearances during that time. Remarkably, 29 of the 32 NFL teams have made at least one playoff appearance since the 2015 – 2016 season (pour one out for the Browns, Buccaneers, and Jets). We also have seen teams make rather
quick turnarounds, which we can see in looking at team win/loss records since 2015. Since 2015, there have been 14 different instances of teams adding at least six wins to their previous season total. Just this season, we saw the NFC representatives in the Super Bowl jump from four wins to 13. While predicting win/loss records for the upcoming season is a futile effort (especially in January), it would not be unheard of to see the Bengals make a major leap in 2020 and flirt with 8-9 wins. While that is not likely enough to enter the playoff picture, it would be a gigantic step forward in the right direction and lay the foundation for a potential 2021 playoff run.


When looking at the Kansas City Chiefs, we can simplify their blueprint as such: The Chiefs win with a masterful offensive scheme that gets their plethora of playmakers into space, relying on their elite quarterback and outstanding athletes on the outside to win. Their defense is opportunistic in forcing turnovers and creating sacks, even if they yield higher yardage amounts. It would behoove the Bengals to try to mirror the Chiefs blueprint as closely as possible, and I believe just a few moves could put them
on the right track.


On the offensive side of the ball, it starts with the quarterback position. Andy Dalton is a fine quarterback but by now we know he is not the guy that will lead us to the promised land. While Joe Burrow is a complete unknown at the professional level, there is reason to believe based on his most recent body of work along with the traits he displayed in full this past college season, that he can be a franchise quarterback. A quarterback that is able to make plays (that is, making things happen when plays begin to breakdown or do not go according to plan) frees up an entire offense and helps cover some of those warts that can creep up from time to time. Add in an offensive play-caller now entering his second season with a disposal of weapons on offense (Boyd, Mixon, Tate, and potentially A.J. Green)
to accompany his rookie quarterback and Zac Taylor should be able to unleash a little more firepower than what we saw last season with the likes of Ryan Finley, Alex Erickson, and CJ Uzomah all playing meaningful snaps. A free agent signing of a solid backend defender like Justin Simmons (90.8 PFF grade, four interceptions) or Anthony Harris (90.5 PFF grade, six interceptions) and continued growth of Carl Lawson and Sam Hubbard would potentially go a long way towards helping this defense force more
turnovers.


Now, is it likely that the Bengals become major spenders in free agency? Probably not, even if they do have $49 million in cap space with the potential of having $75+ million with the trade/release of Dalton and Cordy Glenn. But you can see that in just a few moves, they could very well become a formidable foe come next season. We know some team(s) is going to see a major increase in wins next season, and most likely nearly half of the playoff field will look different than it did this season. The Bengals can make that leap and return to the playoffs for the first time in half a decade.